TIME: Almanac 1990/1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso/time/051589/05158900.029

Text File | 1990-09-22 | 5KB | 95 lines

WORLD, Page 46

ARGENTINA

A Test for Latin Democracy

Who will lead the country out of its financial mess?


    The candidate, sporting bushy, graying muttonchop sideburns,
navel-baring shirts and a gold cross, stumps the land in a
bubble-domed mobile home. He is known for driving sports cars,
squiring starlets and playing tennis. His oratory is lackluster,
but he compensates with charisma and charm. And though Carlos Saul
Menem may give uninspired speeches, people listen when he delivers
his trademark finish. "Follow me!" he shouts. "For the hunger of
the poor children, for the sadness of the rich children, follow
me!" By now the crowds are roaring. "I'm not going to deceive you,"
he concludes. "Follow me!"

    Argentina may have to, if Carlos Menem, running for President
on the Peronist ticket, wins next Sunday's election. Nearly
one-quarter of Argentines are still undecided, but Menem is leading
and has a good chance to become the first elected civilian since
1928 to succeed another full-term civilian President. If so, he
would also bring back the popular but chaotic politics of Peronism,
a controversial -- and volatile -- blend of populism, nationalism
and Roman Catholicism.

    The orderly transfer of power says a good deal about this
election. With more than half a dozen presidential elections in
Latin America this year, what has been a rising tide of democracy
may be reaching a crest. Loaded down with debt, crippled economies
throughout the hemisphere could swamp some of these frail
experiments. But Argentina, for one, is no longer deciding whether
to have democracy, just what kind of democracy to have.

    Despite a restless military and the uncertain character of a
Peronist government, this election is about economics. Argentina
is flirting with financial disaster. Since last month alone, the
country's currency, the austral, has plummeted from 51 to 86 to the
dollar. The country's foreign debt stands at $57 billion, and the
annual inflation rate is 3,600%. Says Argentine novelist Jose Pablo
Feiman: "We are close to social explosion."

    What caused Argentina's fall? Some Argentines blame the legacy
of Juan Peron, who took power in 1946, was ousted by the military
in 1955, then returned to rule from 1973 until his death the
following year. Peronism established a "corporative state," in
which labor and business struck pacts of cooperation under state
management. From their privileged position, the country's
Peronist-controlled unions paralyzed whole sectors of the economy
at will. The result, say critics, has been a deadly spiral of
decreased competition and productivity.

    But others fault outgoing President Raul Alfonsin, who cannot
succeed himself, for failing to fulfill the surge of national
optimism that swept him into office in 1983, ending nearly eight
years of military rule. Applauded for his commitment to human
rights, Alfonsin promised that a stable democracy would solve the
nation's problems. It didn't, and Argentines grew disenchanted as
the economy worsened. The military, meanwhile, has been moving back
into politics. In three uprisings since 1987, two right-wing
colonels demanded better pay and an end to what they saw as unfair
political persecution. Only a public outpouring of support for
democracy foiled the attempted coups.

    Argentines are now looking for a government that works. That
should favor Eduardo Angeloz, the candidate of Alfonsin's ruling
Radical party, but it also forces him to run against his
predecessor's failed economic policies. A deft administrator and
governor of prosperous Cordoba province, Angeloz espouses a program
of deregulation, privatization and increased foreign investment.

    Menem has yet to articulate his own economic program beyond
the classic Peronist bromides. He promises eventual higher wages
to the workers who form the core of his support, then promises
businessmen that the economy will be put in order. He has
announced, and retracted, such plans as a moratorium on paying
Argentina's staggering foreign debt and establishing sovereignty
over the disputed Falkland Islands. But what Menem lacks in
substance, he makes up for with his flashy, macho style. The son
of Syrian immigrants, Menem has risen from governor of the small
La Rioja province to election front runner by sheer force of
personality. His emotional directness and humility appeal to the
"shirtless ones," who see the Radical party's policies as
benefiting only the elite classes. "Alfonsin's government has been
showing insensitivity to the lower classes," observes Feiman.
"Menem represents the primitive values of Peronism."

    Under Argentina's electoral-college system, it is conceivable
that Menem could win the popular vote and still lose the election.
Should a majority of the college fail to settle on a candidate, the
decision will pass to Congress. Not all Argentines are sure that
the nation's institutions could withstand such a test. Nor are they
sure Argentina could weather another bout of Peronism; Peron's
first tour in the presidential residence and his third wife
Isabel's term, from 1974 to 1976, both ended in military coups.
Argentina may be facing both tests. "Society is learning how much
to trust politicians," says pollster and political analyst Manuel
Mora y Araujo. "It is a process of very deep, important change."